Concentric

Notebook

25 August 2026

The paper that could kill this

In 2023 somebody ran almost exactly this manipulation and found essentially nothing.

If you want to know whether this project is any good, start here rather than with anything I have built.

Lenhausen, Bleidorn and Hopwood (2023) gave 1,194 people a Big Five inventory seven times, each under a different framing: unprompted, compared to people in general, compared to close others, compared to people your age, your gender, your past self, your ideal self.

The between-person framings — including people in general versus close others — moved scores by d < .05. That is essentially nothing. The within-person ones, past self and ideal self, moved scores by up to d = .98.

So the specific manipulation that most resembles mine has already been tested at scale and come back empty.

The escape, and why it is thin

Their instruction changed the comparison standard: rate yourself relative to close others. Mine changes the behavioural target: how you actually behave toward close others.

Those are different psychological operations. One asks you to move a yardstick. The other asks about different events in your life. I think the second is a real manipulation where the first is nearly a no-op, and there is theoretical support for that.

But notice what the defence rests on. It is carried entirely by item wording. Which turns a theoretical argument into an engineering constraint, and makes it something that can be got wrong quietly:

What I have committed to

If the gradients here also come out at d < .05, the construct is dead and I say so on this site, in the same place and at the same size as I would have said the opposite.

That is not modesty. It is the only thing that makes the earlier claim worth anything. A prediction registered before the data, with a stated condition for being wrong, is evidence. The same words written afterwards are decoration.